I am not sure who said this – “Predictions are difficult, especially if it is about the future”. This is so damn true. I have always held that if you are predicting about say the equity markets, more than prediction, it is the timing of the prediction that is more important. For example everybody feels that the market is low and it should go higher. Great, but hey the all time high of 40,000 was just crossed ..and we are not too far away from there, are we?

If I get the equity prediction right,  I have to be able to say that the market will fall in Aug 2019, the Index will go to 36000, remain there till 2020 September, and then go up to 44000 by Sep. 2021. This is a perfect prediction (which could of course be wrong, but it has all the components of a USEFUL prediction. However, when I predict, I am boring, many times wrong, and in most times completely wrong with timing. For example I do not see any reason why the large cap companies should go up – and I have been saying this for long. Where are the earnings? The problem is how many times can you say “market is high” or “there is no earnings visibility” or “these prices are not sustainable”? We all have said all that and more. Predicting with timing is IMPOSSIBLE. That is the problem with equity prediction. It gets even worse if you are a media company. How many times can you say the same thing. So you need newer ways of saying the same thing!

For most of us, we need the market to go up – we all have a vested interest. I do training for IFA, and do IAP for the end investor. Let’s accept it, both are bull market products. It is easier for an Amc to find budgets in a rising market than in a falling market. So it makes sense for me to be in a bullish mode rather than be in a bearish mode.

Sometimes we are desperate to believe something. Seen astrology ads? or even “Sure cure for all Sex problems” – a desperate man/woman will believe anything. Such predictions are just exploitation. Works in equity markets – for a trader who has lost heavily, he is desperate to believe “market will reach 44000 in Oct, 2019” today!

Most amazing prediction is my bank RM’s projection of 10% return on my ULIP maturing in 2049. He can predict to the last decimal place. To buy a policy, I too have to sign on that shit paper.

Look at the success of Dhirubhai and Mukesh Ambani. Both over engineered their products – Patalganaga plant was ready for a MUCH BIGGER earthquake than what had EVER hit that place. If I were the MD I would NOT HAVE been prepared for an earthquake bigger than what had happened in the past. IT IS A FAILURE OF MY IMAGINATION. Similarly in Chennai when Mukesh built the infra for Rcom – he was prepared for a much worse storm – so the only phone which worked was the Rcom one! He has done similar stuff for the cable network all over the country….predicting requires a lot of imagination. We GenX have to be able to predict behavior of Gen X, Millennial, Gen Y….that is tough.

The greatest lesson in Optimistic Prediction of course the Gambling of Yudhishtir – he had no skill to predict or any skill to play a game. However in full optimism he lost his kingdom, brothers, and wife too.

I can predict equity market in probabilistic terms, I can go wrong by a couple of years, I can be completely off track and wrong for a long period of time – AND still not feel I got something wrong. This is simply because I never take an “all or none attitude” in any business. Like 2 businesses that I like – Apollo Hospital and Indigo. Both have far more huge demand than what they can cater, but I still do not know how much to trust the management. Ha, predicting individual share price is a NIGHTMARE. I have done it in the past and looked far more foolish than I am.