I can claim to have one advantage which many of you do not have. I have been talking to people through seminars, vlogs and I have been writing blogs – and I do get a feeling that we are ALL taking this virus too lightly. I guess it is the “over-confidence” bias or “anyway I can’t do anything” bias!!

I spoke to a bunch of doctors who were asking me “Is this a good time to set up a hospital with 30 beds” and “should I invest in Pharma shares” or those kind of questions. To me it did not matter, and when I asked “how many months can your clinic (hospital, dispensary…) operate with ZERO revenue” – the answer was 2 months!! I told the dentists to start preparing for 12 months, not just 2! Remember your EMI, salaries, (TDS!!), rent, have to be paid for the next 12 months. What if this money was lying in Franklin Templeton “Ultrashort bond fund”? and you may not be able to access it for a long time? do you have a back up plan?

In January, I wondered about a health scare out of China. I simply didn’t know the lasting impact, but there was likely to be at least a short-term effect, which could cause ripples that are worth monitoring.” I was SURE that this was a Chinese problem, and they would sort it out, AS USUAL.

I was sure that China would experience a hit to its economy, which was due to grow by about 6 percent in 2020. Anyway I am not a Macro man, and do not believe government figures – surely not the Chinese government. That it would be so big of course missed my dumb head. In the first quarter of 2020, China collapsed, shrinking by 6.8 percent from a year ago and by 9.8 percent from the previous quarter.

By March, it was clear that something real big would happen. In Feb I was not the only person wondering what will happen. FED, IMF, RBI, Gov of India – were still grappling. If you remember we had a big state guest in the 4th week of Feb. So I guess we all like to downplay the bad news and we all did it very competently!

Covid-19 has quickly changed how we live and work. I do not think I imagined that there would be a month when I would have no “conveyance” leave alone travel!  Very few of us could have imagined a world where all but essential workers would be sheltering in residence, wearing masks and gloves, washing our hands 4 times a day, and sharing with one another where and when the grocer and veggie supplier will come. Of course if you are an American, you were worrying about toilet paper!! And yet in a matter of weeks, as thousands of Indians started walking home (1300kms, with family and baggage),  millions are / will be sidelined from the work force. A friend called to say “my son’s credit card bill is Rs. 930 instead of the usual Rs. 11,000!! We just cut back savagely on spending – fairly obvious, did you say?

Those trying to guess the market direction of course are punting – and anything that you do / say could be perfectly right or dramatically wrong!  Shares of companies making fertilizers, pesticides are doing well – remember we have had a normal monsoon. However the locust menace in North India could create a drought there!

We have too many things to grapple with. Predicting the markets should be the last thing that you should try.