The title is not accurate – typically I should have said “Saturday – All In a Day’s Work” as Busybee aka Beheram Contractor would have said.

This crash is different from earlier crashes – I have got far more calls asking “what to buy” far more than “should I sell everything and run”.

Not sure who should get the credit, but I do think that media – which I villify regularly surely should get a lot of credit. I hear Mubina Kapasi, Sumaira Abidi, Surabhi Upadhyay, Anil Singhvi, Kavita Tapliyal – all of them at various times echoing the most sensible advice – stay calm. I also saw videos by Amit Trivedi, Gaurav Mashruwala and independent producers like Swati Kumari saying these things.

I heard Debashis Basu talking of the current situation far more grimly, and as usual with facts – as usual.

I am assuming that people have been watching all this – or at least some of this. I also saw international giants like Morgan Housel talking a lot calmly, and I hope people have heard / read what he says.

Of course I have been screaming – literally on the video – and online that the best thing to do is sit tight.

I have got calls from people asking me “I have x Rs. should I invest..and in which mutual fund or equity shares”. I have had questions from 19 year old to HOLD YOUR BREATH 92 year old asking me “should I put more money to work”. I dare not elaborate on both these people – one fears his parents, one fears his kids!!

I advised people to put money in INDEX funds – especially those who had a longish portfolio and not very well balanced. Of course with people who were already excessively in equity and less in debt, my suggestion was to sit in debt funds – as they were already doing.

Personally I had (luckily, not talent) sold shares of Carborundum Universal, Chola, Eid Parry, Coromandel International, Hdfc bank, ….and a few others. However I have bought them all back inspite of the fact that I do not think that the market at its bottom. Then why did I buy? Simply because i was making decent money, and I seriously do not have the time to monitor. Most bought at lower circuits…and still waiting to buy more. Bought PSU (going against my long term philosophy) – how can you not buy Coal India at 138 – with an imbedded Rs 12 of dividend. How can you not buy Indian Oil at Rs. 80 – with a Rs. 4.25 of imbedded dividend? I thought that this was the nadir. So I bought. I bought Coal India, Ntpc, IOC, Eid Parry, Carborundum Universal.

I am biding my time in BFSI – not sure if even Hdfc bank has hit the nadir. I have sold it at 1200 – an excellent price – but I may buy Hdfc Ltd – where the SOPV sounds better. However I have sold less than 12% of my holding.

So even when I say “I sold” I mean that I sold say 5-10% of the holding in that share. I wish I had sold more Oracle than i did, and I wish I had sold more Hdfc amc.

I am not in a great hurry to buy the BFSI space – even though I am sure that the strong will emerge very strong. I am sure that some of the weak ones will be ripped off the face of earth. I like Indusind bank, I do not like Idfc bank. I have neither in my portfolio, but I would look at Indusind first. Having said that just covering Hdfc bank and Chola sold earlier gives me enough of BFSI. I do think it is over-priced and the new leader will be anybody but not bfsi. My bet is on Pharma, Infra and Psu. I would rather spread my bets – overconfidence in one of the 3 looks illogical.

One word on some favorites like Pidilite, ITC, Hul, LnT, etc.

There is nothing wrong with ITC – look at the ratios – its margins are great. However the margins are in Tobacco not in other businesses. As a capital allocator it allocated max to its worst business. I have dealt with ITC Classic Finance, and I have seen them throw good money after bad money. Personally I did not like a company spreading cancer. Foolish of Lic and Suti to be holding it. They should have done a strategic sale – to BAT or a bunch of strategic investors – like Blackrock, Sequoia, etc. They would have got a lovely price. Instead they chose to sell through ETF – which became an amazing arbitrage opportunity for the trader. The current price is because the price is a victim of this arbitrage. I am not sure whether it will got to its golden era of PE of 70.

What about Pidilite? Good company, good product, good management – however when the family needs money, it will sell family silver. Get it?

HUL – is in a sweet spot. There is no supply – I know people holding 500,000 shares as well as those holding 500 shares. Those who have held it for donkeys years -1977 onwards will just not sell – they love the dividends and the regularity of growth. However if Rs. 50,000 crores goes into Index funding – 5% out of that – Rs. 2500 crores goes into HUL. Now if a share has no supply, but sure demand, no trader will DARE short HUL. This is BAD for HUL. BAd because its price will keep going up – and when for some reason it falls – you can’t keeping growing at 25% and have 40% margins for life!! The rise in HUL will be met by a crushing fall SUDDENLY. So beware.

Ok….one more Saturday…and will come out with one more post…right now, take care.,,,,