There is always risk in the markets – Equity or Debt or Job. Funnily it is risk which gives us the opportunity to buy. We just saw the quarterly results of Indigo. Obviously it was not good and the share has gone down from  1800 to about 1500. Maybe it will go down even further. Say 1350. A company with 50% market share cannot be too bad to buy at that price. Is it risky? of course. Yet that is the opportunity to buy. Ditto for many companies like Cummins – which have not performed well for the past few quarters. Good time to accumulate? Maybe.

Caveat: I thought Dhfl was a good buy at 119. Now it is at 19. Shit is shit, price does not matter. I bought, my mistake. My biggest mistake in 2 years. Luckily very small quantity, so lost less. It is obvious that when people are asked to invest, they ask or seek to find out  “how much can they lose”. This is of course correct, however, sometimes you need to see “how much can I earn from here”. For example if you have a 5 year time frame, buying small cap funds may make more sense than buying the over-priced large cap stocks. I can see a lot of opportunities in the large cap sector also, but not in the mutual fund, in the stocks. Many risks look like it is going to happen now, but not all risks manifests themselves. China hard landing? Brexit? Trump Impeachment? BJP will lose the election in Delhi?

Frankly, it does not matter with many of these risks, as they may not manifest themself in the time frame that you are investing. There is always a reason to be in cash. No doubt that it is the worst asset class over long term of time, is it not? Imagine you were scared of equity markets and stayed in cash from 1979 to 2019 do you have any clue what return you would have got?

All the Congi supporters can see the next crisis coming. BJP will win less seats in 2024 than what they won in 2019. Crisis? BJP will lose Delhi. BJP may lose one more state. This may or may not happen. Far more importantly the consequence of this loss (even if it were to happen) may not mean anything for the market. Recently Psu stocks are up…will the trend continue? Will you sell Hdfc bank and buy SBI for example? Well it is a call that you have to take. Will BPCL and NTPC really be on the block for PRIVATISATION? Seriously? Well that is not risk, that is an opportunity. Risk is if the privatisation does not go through !!