What in the next 5 years?
No. I am not saying where the market will be in the next 5 years, I am saying what Namo is likely to do, and how we could react to that.
- The ‘social’ act of doing more work for the bottom of the pyramid will go on as usual.
- Namo is a real Gandhian. He will do anything to keep the poorest man happy.
- About 400 to 800 million people will see their purchasing power go up.
- At the bottom of the pyramid there will be demand for roti, kapada and makaan
- Roti will mean cheap, unhealthy, branded (feels cheap, is expensive) food.
- Decent quality jeans and tee shirt will sell in millions
- Toiletries, cycles, motor cycles, second hand cars – worth monitoring these sales
- Namo will work in areas where the impact on GDP is NOT VISIBLE.
- Mutual funds with brains and going to 1400 cities will do better than the ones in 30 cities only.
- Roti, Kapada, Makaan, JAM – bank account and mobile phones will be passe
- Mobile will dramatically improve demand for entertainment.
- Remember 70% of online content is porn. Imagine what it is going to do for content!
- Estate duty and Wealth tax – it is just a matter of when, not whether
- 500,000 Indians will migrate EVERY year to East Europe, Australia, Canada, UK and USA. Remember each person will take Rs. 1 million in some form or the other.
- There is a vested interest in the Real Estate market, so even the dead RE market will be kept in Coma, but will not be declared dead.
- Sebi will be forced to allow foreign mutual funds (without any subterfuge) to work in India
- Upper strata of India will close its eyes to the problems lik education, and health care. They will go abroad for treatment or education
- Don’t expect to see any major attempt to reform the Judiciary, Police or the education system.
- Sebi, Irda, MoF…will continue to allow wrapper premium. So interst will be taxed, but if it is owned by a mutual fund you can change it from current income to future capital gains..
- Namo did a magic in 2019. Repeating in 2024 is a pipe dream.
- Giving gas cylinders, building toilets, electricity in every house, mudra…are activities which may look good, but impact on GDP will be felt with a lag..
- International slow down is a reality
- Namo should concentrate on water, rural infra and agriculture.
- The Mandir was missing in the 2019 election, we have to see if it comes back in the UP election.