Leveraging and Risk
I knew a senior citizen who had kept his money in many companies as fixed deposit. This is a story which happened long back – many of these companies are no longer accepting fixed deposits (so please do not ask me about it now). The companies were Tata Finance, Hdfc, Cholamandalam, Sriram Transport, Sundaram Finance, Lloyds Finance, CRB Capital, Viswapriya Financial, and Fortis Financial.
I redeemed his fixed deposits in Sriram, Lloyds, Crb, Fortis, Viswapriya financial – immediately.
For the next 12 months all these companies worked fine. Which means he would NOT HAVE HAD A problem. He would have been 92 now…and all this must have happened about 15 years ago. He kept cribbing that NOTHING HAPPENED AND we need not have removed the money!
THAT IS THE PROBLEM WITH RISK. Just because you have taken a car insurance, you will NOT have an accident. Just because you have worn a seat belt it does not mean there will be an accident. I know of one young 23 year old girl killed in a BMW last week. She did not wear a seat belt. When you do not wear a seat belt the air bags do not open. Killed on the spot. Driver unhurt.
Please understand: Not taking precautions COULD cause a damage, but you will not get a PRIZE for taking a precaution. That is the problem with pure risk. It is a one or none game.
Same is true for leveraged trading. No. This is not investing. This is trading with a leverage. It involves borrowing money from a banker (through a broker) to buy a share. This is internationally called a Margin account.
It allows you to use someone else’s money to buy more shares than what you could have bought on your own. So if you are a person with Rs. 20 lakhs net worth, and want to invest Rs. 10L and you go to a broker, he tells you – Why don’t you do a leverage (aka Futures n Options). He tells you that with Rs. 10L and with a 20 times leverage, you can do transactions worth Rs. 2 crores. Wow. You feel great, right? You need balls of steel of course. Leveraging creates a much higher profit potential than just trading with your Rs. 10L. So let us say your broker has bought shares worth Rs.2 crores and the shares go up by 5% in one month. Wow it means you earned Rs. 10L in one month. So the mind calculates…on Rs. 10L you will earn Rs. 1.2 crores a year..so ..LOL!!!
What the broker does not tell you is that margin trading MAGNIFIES the impact of losses. Also if there is a fall say of 5% – your whole margin of Rs. 10L will be wiped out. So what will the broker do? He would have already sold off the shares. He cannot afford to wait longer – UNLESS of course you pay the margin!! Remember you had only Rs 10 L. End of story. Your journey to the share market was just ended. Good bye.
Suppose you have Rs. 100,000 in your margin account, but you want to buy shares that cost more than that. Your broker has a 50% initial margin requirement, meaning you must pay upfront at least half the cash for a share purchase. This requirement gives you the ability to purchase up to Rs 200,000 worth of shares, effectively doubling your buying power.
After you make the purchase, you own Rs 200,000 in shares and you owe your broker Rs 100,000. The value of the share becomes the collateral for the loan he has given you. Obviously you will not be allowed to take the shares away unless you pay him. If the shares increase in value to Rs. 400,000 you sell it, you keep the shares after paying the broker the amount due to him along with the interest due on that amount. Normally it is a banker who does the funding, and rarely the broker. He may not have enough money to fund all the traders in his client list. Had you initially paid for the entire Rs. 200,000 yourself and sold at Rs. 400,000, your gain is only 50%. This shows how the leverage by purchasing on margin INCREASES gains.
Leverage amplifies losses in the same way. Suppose the stock price decreases to Rs 150,000 and you sell it to prevent further losses. After paying your broker the Rs. 100,000 your proceeds come to Rs 50,000. Your loss is about 50%, however if you had not leveraged, this price fall would have resulted only in a 25% loss.
Another risk of purchasing stocks on margin is the margin call. Depending on your past behavior and your broker’s rules (and SEBI rules) you will have to maintain a margin of say 50% always! So your broker will call you when the share price falls – he will call you and ask you to better the margins. You will have to pay the losses ASAP .
Karthik
I have seen the same behaviour in my circle where people are comfortable keeping money in cooperative banks but think liquid funds are risky!
Pandu
House Loan is also a kind of Margin Account. People have been lucky so far , with House prices inflating with the economy.
subra
Housing loan is a leverage. People see it once in 10 years, so it does not worry them. Also they fool themselves about RE prices. No prices flashing at your face on a daily basis…
Sudha
Negative leverage for all those who have taken a housing loan in the last 2-3 years, especially for investment and not for self use. They believed that the continuous year on year increases in prices of 2002-2010 would continue. Funny that people want prices of vegetables and petrol to drop but the prices of equity and real esates to rise.. continuously
Krish
Everyone drives a car and feels it is not a big deal. True in most cases. Recently we were travelling in two cars to the same destination and first car (self driven) left 30 min early. It got flat tyre and they struggled to change the tyre. After reaching the spot, our car driver done it in 5 min. However brilliant one may be, experience teaches lot of Risk Management and there is no match for it.
SS
Subra sir, Leveraging/borrowing is bad. However, if we read success stories of investors who made it big there is lot of luck involved to win the first bet. After the first win, things fall in place automatically.. If we take example of a couple of great investors here – Jhunjunwala has started off career with 5K in 1985, has bought 4L sesa goa shares in forward contract. The prices rose unexpectedly and he made a killing out of it. Then there were some intelligent picks by RJ based on fundamentals.. Vijay Kedia who came to mumbai with 35 K in pocket and the journey to 500 Cr. he invested 35K in Punjab tractors in 1978 which became 6x in 3 years to 2.1L. That money in ACC @300 Rs which rose to 3000Rs in 2 years to 21L. etc.. What I am referring to here is raising the initial ‘seed money’. If these first games did not click for them, then there wouldn’t be the rest of the RJ and VK story.
If I have 1L and expect 15% from market. Buy and hold for a decade, the money becomes 4L. if I expect is 20% it turns out to 6.2 L in a decade. The ‘initial rise’ of the titans of investing paved the way to riches for them.. I agree on play safe and preservation of capital part.
CK
The ‘hazard’ is a contained thought process within the mind seeking unrealistic desires. The ‘threat’ that releases this hazard is ‘temptation’ (i.e.mind giving instruction to take actions). The ‘barrier(s)’ to stop this temptation are to think once again, seek good advice, analyse pros and cons, use wisdom of others, learning from past mistakes etc., If all these barriers fail, then the undesirable event will happen. Consequences will be painful but manageable in some cases but not in all cases. Therefore, understanding the Hazard-Threat-Barrier axis is very important in risk management
subra
amazing you talk about RJ. How many RJ do you know? how many Kedia do you know? it is like taking Sachin Tendulkar played cricket and earned Rs. 1000 crores. Great idea. Lets all play cricket.
SS
Hi Subra sir, I did not make myself clear.. delete RJ.. delete VK… etc..
My point was, If market returns modest 15%, how much time will it take for a person to go from 1X to just 10X?
start with 1L and go to 10L ? –> 1L x (1.15^17) = 10L
start with 10L and go to 1Cr ? –> 10L x (1.15^17) = 1Cr
start with 1Cr and go to 10Cr? –> 1Cr x (1.15^17) = 10Cr.
17 years each! So if I want to get to retirement point from where we are now (varies from person to person), to the magic number as 10Cr, it is not a small time frame. It may be 17 yrs, 33 yrs, 50 yrs etc depending on initial seed amount we have now and with value investing. One would have done something spectacular to reach 50Cr in a 50 yrs time-frame. Either the initial amount is high OR the return% is high consistently. Is it right?