Yes this is a click-bait. It was meant to get you here.

Today the market was at 36209. Not long ago it was knocking at 36300, but of course it did not touch 37000 but it was supposed to be headed there.

For 2 days in a row the market has fallen. Please remember that if it falls by 1% it is 362 points and 3% means a 4 digit fall. A 4 digit fall sounds big when the index is say 5000, but a 4 digit fall is NOTHING when the index is say 60000! So when we see numbers we have to see them in a ‘relative’ mind set not in an absolute mindset.

Let us see, the index was at 28335 in Feb 2017 when many purists were claiming that the market was terribly high and needed a correction! Then it slowly and steadily climbed to 36000 in Feb 2018, and is still rubbing shoulders at that level.

THE MARKET goes up, then remains there, goes up again, goes down – we all have seen it go up in the long run. I mean say from 1979 when it was 100 it is now 36000. In 1979 if somebody had said ‘give me Rs. 1000 and I will give you Rs. 362,000 in 2018 along with 3% dividends every year, I would have happily accepted. Period.

I did invest in 1979…as well as in 2018. I sold on the way too when I needed money, but the money I took out of the market is almost insignificant. No, I have no regrets that :

a) I did not do asset allocation – as all journos ask you to do

b) I never describe the market as ‘falling’ or ‘rising’. My teacher said that is ‘present continuous’. I can only say “Market fell on 6th Feb 2018′. I have no clue whether it will fall on 7th Feb. I have no clue whether ‘Feb 2018’ will be rising month or a falling month.

c) I do not use words like ‘blood bath’ for a 300 point fall (1% at this stage) or for a 1000 point fall (3% at this stage)

d) words like melt down, blood bath, etc are amusing and are just click baits

e) when you see such words you may be tempted to act. The only act should be to stop reading shit like that.

Remember market will go up and go down. Many shares were in the green in the last few days. So if the market were to fall 20% from 36300 i.e. by approx 8000 points it will mean it is at 28000. OMG! did you say? well the market would have just wiped out one year’s gain. That is not too much. Some in the media would have fainted, but the markets are not for the faint hearted.

Why would the market go to 28000 I do not know. In 2007/8 when the Nifty was 2248 I did no know that it would go to 11200 in 2018.  5x in 10 years was an awesome bull run. We think such runs will keep happening permanently without any interruptions. However, the market is made up of bull runs, interruptions, and bear runs.

When there is a bear run we forget that it was preceded by a bull run! And the reverse. So yes, the market could go to 28000 – that means that it could give us many buying opportunities on its way down. Similarly we could see brexit, another Satyam, another Real Estate meltdown, an election reversal (2014 was a reversal), a change of PM, achhe din not happening, GST taking 3 years to stabilize, a coalition government, FII selling, FII buying, SIP ceasing, SIP booming,….and the Nifty could reach 55000 in 2023. Well, it will give you lots of opportunities to buy, sell, trade, and do arbitrage.

In those 5 years..you will see a deep cut 20%, a stupid unbelievable 77% rise – hey that is how markets work. However when the markets fall, you will see the following HEADLINES:

• market crashes 4000 points!
• did you know your sip returns in 3 years WAS LESS THAN YOUR PPF returns?
• stunning losses in the market capitalization!
• Mr. Ambani loses US $ 1 billion in market capitalization IN JUST ONE HOUR!
• Should you have sold in Jan 2018 and bought in November 2018??

Well when you see such headlines, it just means you should chuckle.

I sold on Friday, Monday (5th), and Tuesday (6th).

I bought on Friday, Monday (5th) and Tuesday(6th).

On 7th if RBI raises interest rates by 0.25% markets will give more oppou dortunities to buy. I also plan to sell some shares.

Oops, it has nothing to do with the markets. It is stock specific.

So what should you do? Look at your portfolio. If you have Tata Chemicals, PnG, Colgate, Cholamandalam, Coromandel…well they have not fallen, right?

Well Cummins could be a buying opportunity?

Oh you do not know how will it be tomorrow, right?

Stay calm. See if your current income is enough for you to live. See if you have enough money for an emergency and your short term goals. Or if you are retired will your income pull you through without DISTURBING the equity portfolio.

Then stay calm again. The main reason why you make money in equities is because the market rewards you for staying calm.

Will I panic? Well at 22000 I might panic. Will the sensex reach there?

Seriously, I have no clue.

On 7th Feb, 2018 I will have my shopping app ready. Yes I turn buyer, esp if RBI increases interest rates. No, I am not tracking the macro (I am bad at that)…but I am tracking my portfolio. I like it. So I might add more to it at a price that I like. At a price where I think I will get a positive return in 2 digits in 5 years or maybe less!!