Overconfidence and Investing
I see people who cannot count beyond 3 want to be a DIY. Literally these people should not be investing without help, but then it is their problem, not mine. I just have to see and comment. No, I am not in a position to help them, nor am I inclined to “help” people for free. The reach of this blog is just to 7000 people reading it everyday. This has not changed for a long time…in fact it is falling, not increasing!
There are websites and blogs which keep asking you “If your broker is so smart how come he is not rich”. To me the question is “if your blogger is really smart and he wants to make money, why is he not rich enough not to blog”. Amusing but true. I saw an ad where a housewife tells her cousin that she earned $1200 with 2 weeks of foreign exchange trading. Of course for earning that she had to spend Rs. 240,000 to attend a 2 week course! How gullible.
The internet took the Peter Lynch principle, and made it seem irresistible! We have made investing LOOK very simple – especially equity investing. So there he was being MANIPULATED by the blogs to listen to and understand Peter Lynch: using the Internet to learn about buying shares over the Internet. It worked — and “I did it all myself!” Never before had the Peter Lynch Principle seemed so easy, seductive — and successful. There he was. He had bought Infosys, Hdfc bank, Reliance, Tata Steel and of course a bunch of shit, let me not name them. He had also invested in a bunch of mutual fund schemes. Then he joins a FB page – let us call it “easy money to richness”. This page acts as a ‘dare’ page. Each guy or gal comes and says “I did this and it worked for me”. Remember we are all doctors who can prescribe WITHOUT even doing an investigation!! Lovely no?
Psychologist Marvin Zuckerman has written about a form of risk called “sensation seeking” behavior. This kind of risk — people daring each other to push past the boundaries of normally acceptable behavior — is largely a group phenomenon. People will do things in a social group that they would never dream of doing in isolation. Or at least they claim to do it!
So we BELIEVE all that we read in a blog – “I bought Infosys and made money” or “I did a SIP in ….and earned so much”. The biggest bulls shout the loudest, Innumeracy is all prevalent, and we believe that all that we read in a blog or a web page are true. So we PEACEFULLY ignore our own track record, and start believing all the shit we read. Some bloggers think and tell you “I can do it, so can you”. Absolute bull. I can do it, does not mean you can do it. I cannot stop my consumption of sugar. THAT IS MY PROBLEM. I have to read, assimilate, understand, experiment and then accept it full time. No, not easy, but commonly done.
Srikanth Matrubai
The biggest bull shouts the loudest.
Exactly the similar thing is happening in Bitcon.
Bitcoin Bitbidi
Bitbidi in Kannada means LEAVE IT