We should look for new indicators?
When dealing with macros I struggle for numbers that not everybody tracks.
Let us talk of cars. I have met many people now in their 30s who are STILL using their 6-8 year old SMALL CARS. These are rich kids who can easily buy a Honda City if not a Toyota. What is the reason for the DELAY in the upgrade? Ola / Uber.
Is this an indicator that car sales are down, but travelling is up? I see many of the practical people smartly using the Metro in Mumbai and not their car. So is sale of petrol now not a good indicator of ‘prosperity’ ? I know not.
I am seeing more kids turning to rent instead of falling prey to their parents nagging of ‘buy a house’. I am also seeing young people buying houses to give on rent. How do I reconcile the 2 conflicting events? do they cancel it out?
I see 45 year olds refusing to take 15 year loans saying ‘I have no clue whether I will retain this job till I am 60’. NO guesses.
CMIE tracks some of these interesting facts. You must visit their site (I used to be a buyer of their monthly reports and corporate data) when we used to do some research…today I call people to do the research.
read on
Kamal Garg
While ‘diesel’ sale has always been an important barometer for economic activity and closely monitored, may be, ‘petrol’ sale may be a distant barometer for ‘prosperity’.
One of the reasons why people are not shifting from their small cars (while having affordability) is because of huge traffic problems, jams and parking problems in almost all our cities.
In large cities commuting is a big problem and therefore people take rented accommodation near their work places and for investment they choose some other destination/place. This is happening with my own sons.
Nowadays, people are not sure whether they would be able to retain their job in their fifties or not. It is increasingly becoming difficult to survive the cut throat competition for talent and relevant skill set in the ever changing corporate world that people are not very sure whether they would be able to retain their job in their fifties and therefore buy their house also early in their thirties.
bhushan
I can talk about myself. I have a Swift VXI which is 4 years old and I plan to maintain it well and use for at least 10 more years. Also due to traffic issues i prefer to use Uber while going to dense traffic areas. I feel in Pune this trend is increasing as i see quite a few people using Uber.
For me Car is mostly used for weekend outings and big grocery shoppings and For Office I use company transport. I think it will help the traffic issue too if many people follow this.