Easy to predict the future….or is it?
To appear in the media all you have to do is SOUND INTELLIGENT on that day. Then you have to hope that jokers like subramoney do not find your old predictions and put it out for people to see.
Sometime in April 2014 (about 7 months ago) we had experts like Shankar Sharma, actually saying this:
Absolutely no doubt in my mind that India will be sharply lower in May and of course emerging markets will be at least 10% to 20% lower from where they are right now,” says Shankar Sharma, Chief Global Trading Strategist, First Global.
Now for the common man it should have meant ” Run away from equity, the sensex is at an ALL TIME HIGH of almost 21000 (it was 20, 400) – AND WE ALL KNOW THAT MARKET WILL COME DOWN FROM 21K. Sounds so stupid NOW does it not?
And he was not alone – there were others willing to join in the chorus – Ashwini Gujral for one.
Then the article goes on to quote interest rates, China slowdown, rising inflation,….etc….
WHAT WOULD THE RETAIL INVESTOR HAVE DONE IF THIS WAS THE ONLY ARTICLE that he was to read?
He would have sold. IN fact my worst clients are the over educated guys n gals who a) think they know everything about the markets b) think they know how to time the markets, c) can speak for 4 hours on how indexing is superior to Naren Sankaran, Prashant Jain, etc. but keep their 10% in equity funds and 90% in debt or real estate.
So if you do want to read the newspapers, do so, but read papers which are 6 months old. Frankly it will make no difference. See what they said, and where it is now. Then you decide whether to smile, cackle, crack up, scream, cry or thank me for this brilliant time saving tip. You owe me a zillion. After all I saved you time 🙂
CTL
I owe you a trillion!! For accidently coming to your blog in mid 2011 & starting to invest in a systematic manner without touching it till date..trusting the Prashants & Narens!!!
BTW, this article was published on 14th Feb 2011!!!(Valentines Day)hahaha..& few days ago this Shankar Sharma had also come for a conference where he was discussing markets with P Jain,S Naren & other Fund manager!!
Mira D
Brilliant, Subrabhai. 🙂
i bow.
Ramesh
Subra,
Can you please help me understand how power of compounding is expected to work for a common man in equity market as the gain achieved in 10years can be washed out in next 5yr? So why do you give so much importance to n.
Krish
These day lot of us are doing exactly opposite of what these experts say on TV. When they say markets corrects, you would notice it would rise. When they say sell the stock and it is overpriced, it goes up. Contrarian approach these days working better rather than going with so called experts.
Arun Jayant
@Ramesh That’s true. Subra – Like Ramesh, I’m not sure I understand why number of years plays a great role in Equity Mutual Funds. If its a Simple Interest or a Compound Interest formula, of course, number of years comes into the picture. I think Ramesh’s question is valid.
I hope I’m not missing something obvious here. It’d be great if you could clarify Subra. Thanks much!
Sridhar Venkataraman
Shankar Sharma’s title is:
Chief Global Trading Strategist, First Global
He apparently strategises “Trading”, not “Investing”. 🙂