The more I write and the more I communicate with people new to finance, the more I realise the need to ‘de-jargonise’. However I am also convinced that if you need to use your money, it is necessary for you to learn simple words like inflation.

With Wikipedia, Investopedia and Google around, I do not want to get into ‘what is inflation’….suffice it to say it is NEGATIVE compounding and can harm your portfolio.

If you have to make your money work hard for you, your PORTFOLIO has to give you REAL returns. REAL returns means the returns that you get AFTER TAXES AND after reducing inflation.

Let us take an explanation of a ONE year return (it holds true for the longer term also).

Suppose you keep a bank fixed deposit of Rs. 10,00,000 at a 10% p.a. return, your calculation would look like this:

Opening balance                                                                              10,00,000

Interest income:                                   100,000

Taxation      (assuming 30%)               30,000

Post tax return                                                                                          70,000

Closing value                                                                                       10,70,000

Inflation (assuming 8%)                                                                         80,000

Closing value of the amount                                                            9,90,000

So thanks to tax and inflation the portfolio is down by 1% over a period of ONE year.

Over a 30-40-50 years this can ruin your wealth.

So it is necessary that the portfolio return overall be POSITIVE. Fairly obviously savings bank accounts, bank FD, Lic endowment policies …can ONLY return NEGATIVE returns.

To make up for this…you need to invest in equities (and enough quantity) so that your OVERALL return is in the POSITIVE areas….

 

  1. Your explaination is just like teaching ABC to kids. The problem here is, implementation and descipline.Many of us, including me fail to implement it when it come to practically doing it.

    Let me tell you, we all understand that Equities are best to be brought when they are not doing good. Or in other words when the market is down. Historically we see when market is going down the amount of buying happens is very less.

    There are only few who buy and make money. We invest in equity and hope that our capital to be protected. the day it goes down by 15% we think, equity is not my cup of tea and exit. This is when we get on to fixed deposits again.

  2. ‘We’ is what depends on where you have been brought up. I lived my life in Ghatkopar, a suburb of Mumbai where since the 1960s many, many people have been in the markets.

    So I will be able to name say 20 ORIGINAL shareholders STILL HOLDING Colgate, PnG, LnT, Hdfc, Dr. Reddys, Reliance, ….as well as people who have grown their Rs. 30,000 to Rs. 2.5 crores and bought an office with that amount.

    This week i saw about Rs. 50 MILLION of purchase in many good scrips and some trading positions being built!

    Have seen people on both sides so able to smile or frown depending on the situation 🙂

    Frankly people buying and selling affects THEM, not ME, right?

  3. No wonder why almost 50% who make money from market is a resident of mumbai & the real estate prices dosent falls there. New york is the city which has 40% of the ultra rich billioners of US too….

  4. Stock market is a beautiful device of transferring wealth from the active to the patient.

    traders make money for the investors.

    so people who stay long (smartly) make money…

  5. This inflation concept is misinterpreted and highly skewed in favour of Equity. It could make a difference to the HNIs but 90-95% of the tax payers who are earning less than 10 lacs per annum, the inflation concept is overblown.

    We have an article in Jagoinvestor currently and we can get the statistics. 30% of the tax pay is not applicable to a greater majority. On the top of it many are investing in PPF which are giving tax exempt throughout. My mantra is simple. If someone is earning more than 20 lacs, they could look for equity investment. Honestly most of the non-30% Tax payers should be happy with the tax saving instruments which infact they struggle to max out. Let them not risk much more worrying about inflation and real returns.

  6. awesome Krish. How are they supposed to live from age 55 (loss of job) to age 85? if they have invested in one home, ppf, nsc and kvp, they should have invested a HUGE corpus. NOt sure how many people can save Rs. 5-6 crores which they may require circa 2025 if they want to retire. God bless.

  7. is inflation only 8% ? i wonder why we are fixated with the number 8 – all financial planning in india seems to use this number as a thumb rule.
    inflation is subjective. the poor face more inflation than the rich.
    the cost of living for the poor -food,housing,medicine,education is thru the roof.
    prices of LED TVs,computers and tablets and fancy foreign vacations -which constitutes a major part of higher income people’s spending -is usually on the way down.
    the poor need more inflation protection.but is the share market the right instrument for them? i am doubtful.
    there is no solution outside of a ‘sound’ money regime.
    when inflationism is the official govt policy,the poor have nowhere to go

  8. ‘poor need more inflation protection’ – and where will it come from Pravin? The index is the only solution for the middle to lower middle class.

    Subra sir will a person retiring in 2014 really need Rs. 4-5 crore to retire? Assuming expenses of Rs. 30,000 pm how much will a couple have to provide for?

  9. sneha -index or not.it is a mere chance you are taking on govt’s whimsical decisions on monetary policy -which is decidedly deficit financing and inflationism.
    the poor ARE screwed.
    the index is a good way to feel smart and yet lose money for the poor.most of the poor live hand to mouth. now i dont count those earning X lacs per year as poor. poor = those who dont have any investible surplus.
    it is not as if inflation comes out of the blue from some random external source like bad rains or oil speculators.there is a direct line of causation to active govt policy of money printing,subsidizing (and distorting prices) and massive borrowing to throw good money after bad (air india,kingfisher bailout etc)

  10. Sorry Pravin you are making what Subramoney calls right sounding and completely un usable rant.

    the people coming to Subramoney should be having an investible surplus. If they do not, they have no business. This site is clearly a personal investment site, not even a ‘how to spend smartly kinda site’.

    poor are screwed. Sure. They cannot afford protection against inflation does NOT mean they do not NEED it. Just like pension, they need it, but cannot afford it.

    to crib about the government nic.co.in or .org should be the forum, right?

  11. The equity returns are in the range of 10-15% over a period of 20 years. With tax saving instruments like PPF, the ordinary employees would be able to generate the same return.

    It makes sense to look at equity if the returns are 30% over 15-20 year period. But they are not. What is the point in taking 30% tax bracket as an example where most of the tax payers do not belong to and scaring them with low figures of real returns.

  12. sneha -perhaps it was a rant against govt policy. and nic.co.in ? you think sarakari babus are sitting there listening to people ranting?
    my main objection is to misunderstanding of what inflation is .
    the 8% number being thrown about casually is pretty naive.

    i do have other ideas to escape inflation . gold.but it is not hot in a equity biased (i dont mean this in a bad way) site like subras

  13. @krish
    ‘It makes sense to look at equity if the returns are 30% over 15-20 year period.’
    it is unrealistic expectation, is not? other day, i come to know that land price in our area raised to 1000 times in last 40 yrs , and i found that the irr for 1024 times in 40 yrs is 18% p.a. for that land. as such , for compounding , 10% to 15% p.a. makes lot of difference for 30-35 yrs of service period or even 20 yrs. period.

  14. absolutely Bharat Shah. Now you know why it is difficult to make money in the equities market. If people have expectation of 30%pa for 30 years, I do not even think they should come anywhere near the stock market. And if they think that equity will give 2x of debt returns, God Bless them.

    And if they think they can get 15% return in debt instruments for 30 years, (forget the tax), that is also amusing. Esp if inflation is 8% or 10%. WHICH REPAYING client will borrow at 15% when inflation is 8%, beats me.

    if i can get 1% more than debt for a period of 20 years on my portfolio, it will be enough to pay for a house in South Mumbai…that gentlemen is called the power of compounding.

    30% for 30 years, Warren Buffet WILL serve as a student to anybody who can get this. I will be happy to lie at his feet.

  15. Subra It Only Means…worlds 8 wonder…COMPOUNDING as a concept is Miles away from Lay Investors…….. from einstein to date lay man is at same place as far as understanding compounding !! A seemingly innocent 1 percent diffrence over 30 years …..need to be put in perspective with an apt article or series of articles from our Subra ,IF AND ONLY IF YOU FEEL APPROPRIATE.It will make complete concept clear to one and all …..For Retirement “A friend in Need ( Compounding) is a friend indeed ….

  16. Agree with Subra. Buffet’s returns over his entire career are “only” 24%, if I dare to use the word “only” here.

    If anyone manages 30% over 30 years, he would be “Buffet ka Baap”.

  17. Milind N it is not about compounding alone..it is about common sense. Also on compounding, I hav written a whole book…:-) ‘Retire…..’ is a book on compounding, right?

    and if you search on this blog I have written enough compounding stories..like ‘If I had Rs. 10 crores…’

  18. I agree Subra .We have enjoyed every bit of enlightment you have given on the topic to us ,REGULAR READERS .Many thx .Also already have Retire RICH and so greatful for that as well.On a diffrent note today starting Day with AKSHAY PATRA ..its dob of my friend and Thanks to you ,Hard earned money will go to right cause ,instead of gifting him.Both of us are happy and its here i learned for first time about AKSAHY PATRA.THX AGAIN

  19. subra sir,

    i think, common sense , says the equity as a class of assets beats inflation (is capable to give a positive return over inflation) over a period of time. because businesses are for profit making (whether doing or not, is different matter) and they are adding values of their products or services. for Indian environment , for laymen, instead direct equity, selected diversified equity mutual funds could be better. studying my portfolio (of diversified equity mfs) i found following performance between dt.1-07-2009 to dt.29-05-2012:(all gains in absolute % )

    bsl div. yield plus- 54% ,icicipru discover-72.66%
    idfc premier equity-64.68%,
    quantum long term eq.-52.85%, icicipru dynamic-44.94
    uti div. yield-42.15% ,hdfc equity-40.27%
    templeton india eq.income-36.13%, hdfc top 200-29.91%
    sensex-12.24%, nifty 50-15.19%, nifty midcap-29.54%

    my point is that during about 3 yrs’ period of stock market volatility , the above funds gave better than fd return , though the indices could not perform. it is for patience and faith in your beliefs, i think.

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