Will Equity Give the best returns?
I have been asked this question a zillion times and I have answered it a zillion times….so there is a sense of exhaustion.
So here is a Buddha Story……
One day an atheist comes to meet Buddha – and he comes early morning so that nobody can see him coming…and meets Buddha.
As soon as Buddha sees him, he realises that this atheist has come to ask him his favorite question -‘Does God Exist?’
Without batting an eyelid Buddha says ‘Yes’ – and the man goes away, thoroughly confused.
In the afternoon a pious man, comes and asks Buddha the same question: ‘Does God Exist?’.
Without batting an eyelid Buddha says ‘No’ – and the man goes away, thoroughly confused.
In the evening a man comes to Buddha and says..”Sir, I am a little confused some people say God exists, some people say God does not exist…If you tell me whether God exists or does not exist, I will KNOW the correct answer’.
Buddha remains silent, and the man goes away thoroughly confused.
Buddha’s favorite disciple asks him at night…’You gave 3 answers to THE SAME question…how is this right, and really what was the meaning of your answer’.
Buddha’s reply was ‘I gave the same answer to all the 3 of them’. The atheist wanted to hear ‘God does not exist’, I broke his myth. The pious man wanted to hear ‘God does exist’ – I broke his myth too. The 3rd person wanted a readymade answer – to him the message was ‘go and find your OWN answer’ ….so the answer to all the 3 of them was the same.
Now cut to the Equity markets. There are people who do not like me, do not know me, do not want to pay any fee….but when they get to see me or read my blog, they ask me ‘Will Equity give the best returns’. The worst thing is they will not be happy with this answer. They will continue to do what they want. They will continue to ask whomever they meet the same question. In the meanwhile whenever they see equity markets go down they will call and say ‘See markets have gone down…NOW what to do?’ .
My take: Personally I have done very well with equities for myself and a few friends. I have seen 70% cagr on a portion of my portfolio over 10 years plus. Frankly the equity markets (like God) does not care what Warren Buffet, Ken Fisher, Mukesh Ambani, or any other Tom, D or H think or want it to do. It does what it does. Frankly to me it is a waste of MY time answering questions like this. Many well paid, highly qualified skeptics who do not want to pay any fee want ME to review their portfolio, tell them what to do with their money, etc. – and I have no use what they will do with the advise. Frankly to me it does not matter.
For my fee paying customer, I am willing to answer such questions. That is my job.
Sonny
Subraji, Totally agree, you should not waste time on people who ask the same question to different people until they hear an answer that matches their own thought process.
I am a little confused on what you actually do. You should write about yourself in one post. I always believed that you teach, answer questions on the show etc Now you have said you answer to your fee paying customer.
70% CAGR over 10+ years on any portion of the portfolio is awesome.
Muthu
Generally we all believe what we want to believe. I’ve conviction or bias about equity as an excellent long term investment. I’ve always found it like binary or enlightenment. Either people get it or won’t.
Not only Buffett or Ken Fisher, markets don’t bother what you or I think. Looks like it has mind of its own which is influenced by innumerable things.
Incidentally I happen to see and read lot of analysis and forecasts on recent political results on markets. Though it is fun to read all of them, they are utterly useless Markets are politically agnostic. Our memory often fails us, though I’m saying below out of my memory
The strongest leg of last bull run happened when UPA-1 was in power with day to day bickering by Left. Nobody would have forgotten the weekly breakfast meetings and common minimum program.
Out of the 6 years of BJP rule, 3 years were marked by bull and another 3 by bear market- 50/50!
Between 1980 and 1990, markets almost multiplied by 10 times, when socialist government of Indira Gandhi was in power and this was the period when she was assassinated, Punjab burned, government and parliament was crippled for 2 years due to Bofors scandal, a motley crowd of political parties with extreme ideologies formed a functionless government, with person like Devilal who has subzero knowledge on economy, governance and administration calling the shots.
Markets have a mind of its own and follow its own cycles. Our memory is always short and we take every near term event seriously. Fun but utterly useless.
shinu
I am for all the gloom and doom and crash and bloodbath for next couple of years until my SIP’s make enough contributions to strengthen the base of my retirement portfolio. Pls pls pls… dont say the market is going to BOOM… 🙂
Sir, dont get upset for those who dont believe. Your words of wisdom have helped thousands through the blog & the book apart from the lucky ones who could make a one to one conversation paid or unpaid…. Keep going.
Raja
Thought your readers will be interested to watch this documentary http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9dKQ4IB2hY&feature=youtu.be
Titled Brokering News . It’s fabulous!
Shankar
Hi Subra sir,
I agree with you wasting time with the people who just want to hear what they want to hear(I have met some people who asks these questions for timepass). Everyone has to do their own homework and get their own answers to convince them. So, by this time a person who is interested on their own finance should do their analysis as lot of information/articles are available at fingertips!!
Regards,
Shankar
anon
Since the blog wont let me place only a GRIN.
ok, ok, suitably chastised.
Chandrakant D
Excellent story and the article. Sir, i am ready to pay fees if you give your advices to retail investors.
Bhawin Jagad
All we need to do is believe on the long term India Shining Story 🙂
Alok J
chota muh.. badi baat..
Sir I want an appointment of urs.. 😉
Keerthi Mukhi
“For my fee paying customer, I am willing to answer such questions. That is my job.”
So Subra sir, I am ready to pay (even before your services start) for your services needless to say it should be a win-win situation for both of us. Are you ready?