I have never claimed that I can predict well. However having been a broker and having dealt with bankers, I made two predictions – both went wrong.

1. When the Standard Chartered IDR was lapped up by the Indian population, I had predicted on this blog and said ‘now there will be a spate of  IDR issues. I really thought (and think) that all the foreign companies which are well known in India will come out with IDRs. I had expected Samsung, Hyundai, LG, Sony, Caterpillar, …etc. would all bring their IDRs. this would either expand the market or reduce the price-earning ratio for the market in general.

2. When the SBI bond issue at 9.9% p.a. got lapped up by the retail population, I was convinced that Baroda, Punjab, Indian, Hdfc,…would all come out with a bond issue in the same range…but that too did not happen..

reasons:

Ben Bernanke’s printing has ensured that interest rates all over the world are LOW. Ben will keep printing till Obama is re-elected…so there is a long wait.

If interest rates abroad are low, arbitrage will happen (happening) …so the desire to raise money in India is less.

Then how is it that somebody in SBI says….’one more issue is not impossible…’ baap re baap kuch samaj mein nahin aa raha hai..